Modelsloading
Switch a model on and its lines appear on both views of the graph below.
Next: macro models, the street-targets ledger and the Consensus Curve.
Model medianloading
Median switches
How it is computed
Scorecardloading
Market-impliedloading
| Options expiry | Median | 25th to 75th | 10th to 90th |
|---|
Futures basis
Polymarket
Model settingsloading
Production costelectricity, fleet, all-in
| Year | J/TH |
|---|
Halving-cycle overlaydampening
Stock-to-flowrefit
Gold parity / wealth shareshare, year, growth
Logarithmic growth curvesten points
| Curve | Date | Close, $ | Source |
|---|
Capital S-curve scenarioceiling, pace, FOMO, inflation
Signalsloading
Puell multiple
Hash ribbons
The LedgerEvery component in one table
| Switch |
|---|
The GalleryOne small chart per model
Each model against BTC on a log scale, in the main graph's time window. Click a tile to switch the model on the graph; models that are on are outlined.
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How to useSwitches, the median, the scorecard, zoom and sharing
What it shows
Each model is one theory of what Bitcoin should be worth. Switch one on in Models and its lines appear on the graph at the bottom of the page, in both views: price and bands, and the long view to 2140. The Models menu above the graph does the same job.
Model median
The white line is the median of every included model's central value on each date, with the shaded band running from the 25th to the 75th percentile. Before the latest close it mixes models that only describe the past (moving averages, production cost) with models that project; after it, only projecting models count. The gold or wealth scenario is left out unless you include it, because its sliders set the answer.
Families
Models that rest on the same idea are grouped: trend fits, cycle, scarcity, adoption, price structure, holder cost, network, mining cost, the scenario and the market. By default each family takes the median of its members first, then the Model median is the median across families, so one idea gets one vote however many models express it.
Market-implied
What real money prices in today: the Deribit options smile turned into a price distribution at each expiry (the fan runs from the 10th to the 90th percentile), Deribit futures prices by expiry, and the median of Polymarket's BTC price ladders. These are risk-neutral prices, so they carry the cost of carry and any premium traders pay for protection. The family joins the median only forward of today and only out to its last expiry.
The 100% rule
A model whose 365-day walk-forward error is over 100% stays on the graph and in the scorecard but leaves the Model median and its band. It comes back on its own if a later scorecard rebuild brings the error under 100%.
Zoom
Drag to pan, hold Shift and drag to zoom a box, use the wheel or pinch to zoom, or pick a preset. Log time spaces the x axis by the log of days since the genesis block, so a power law draws as a straight line.
Production cost
The teal line is what the mining fleet pays for electricity to win one new coin: the 7-day median hashrate, times the joules the average machine burns per terahash and the power price, over the coins mined that day (144 blocks times the subsidy). Fees are left out. Fleet efficiency and the electricity price are not published anywhere, so move both and watch how far the line moves. Read it as a miner stress line, not a hard floor: when price falls, the weakest miners switch off and cost falls with it.
Sharing and saving
Every switch and setting is written into this page's address. Share link copies it, and whoever opens it sees the same view. Your settings are also kept in this browser, so the dashboard's charts and this page stay in step.
Keep in mind
Every line here is model output or a market price, not a forecast. The walk-forward scorecard is the honest test: each model rebuilt from data knowable at the time and scored on what came next.