- Height
- Hal’s numbers load with the page.
Source: Bitcoin Hashpoint, node Hal. The Chain board
Chain, from Hal
Chain figures: Hal, the Hashpoint’s own Bitcoin node, read on the server and held 60 seconds (/api/v1/hal). Price figures: the Coinbase daily close. Estimates for blocks to come carry a margin; none is a price forecast.
▶How to read this
What each gauge measures
Market mood is the Crypto Fear & Greed Index by alternative.me. It folds price volatility, momentum and volume, social media activity, Bitcoin dominance and search interest into one daily number from 0 to 100. It reads the crowd's sentiment.
Hashpoint structural is this dashboard's own gauge. It ranks four readings against their own history: MVRV, where the daily close sits between the power-law floor and ceiling, the 30-day price return, and the 90-day growth of realized capital. Each reading is scored as a percentile against every earlier day only, never a later one, and the gauge is the average of the four. The bars on its card show each score.
Zones
How to use it
- Read market mood as how the crowd feels today.
- Read the structural gauge as where valuation and capital data sit against their own past.
- Watch the gap between them. Mood well above structure means sentiment has run ahead of the capital data. Mood well below structure means the crowd is more fearful than valuations are.
- Use the history chart to see how often each gauge sat in each zone, and how price moved while it did. Uncheck a line to hide it; 1Y, 4Y and All set the window.
Keep in mind
Neither gauge is a forecast. Both describe today against the past. The structural gauge is dated by its on-chain inputs, which close with the UTC day, so it usually runs a day behind market mood. Market mood's method and inputs belong to alternative.me.
Market mood
Hashpoint structural
Fear & Greed history
v4 Near-term Predictions
Daily Experiment
BTC price & power-law bands
Theory Lab: every Bitcoin price theory, side by side
Every model from the power law to the options market, a family median, and an honest walk-forward scorecard. Model output, not a forecast.
- Models live
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- Family median today
- $...
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- Price vs median
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BTC price with Uber power law (full lifetime view)
▶How to use this section
What it shows
The power law assumes Bitcoin's adoption keeps compounding forever. This section tests that against money actually committed. It grows Bitcoin's realized capital along an S-curve, the way the internet and the smartphone spread, and rides the four-year FOMO cycle on top. The power-law chart above can show the same S-curve as an overlay.
Steps
- Pick a capital ceiling: the share of global wealth Bitcoin's realized capital tops out at. Gold holds about 6% today.
- Pick an adoption pace. Internet is how fast Americans went online from 1995 to 2000. Smartphone is 2011 to 2013. Survey pace is Bitcoin's own 2021 to 2026 survey trend.
- Pick a FOMO cycle. 2024 repeats the last cycle's froth, 2021 brings back the cycle before it, Shrinking keeps the trend of smaller peaks, and Off shows the smooth trend only.
- Pick inflation. At 3.4% global wealth grows faster in dollars, so the dollar ceiling sits higher.
- Uncheck Log Y for the parabolic view. Use Window to look out to the last coin, about 2140.
- Read the cards. Each one is a cycle top. x ceiling at 1.00 or more means price breaks through the power-law ceiling.
- Read Capital pace needed: how fast realized capital must grow every year to October 2029 for this path to hold. The last cycle ran 24% a year.
- Check the tripwires. They light when the conditions for a dollar break, the Stock2FOMO case, show up in the data.
Line key
- S-curve + FOMO: the scenario path with cycles. This is the one to compare with price.
- S-curve trend: the same capital path at today's MVRV, with no cycles.
- Brake branch: the power law bending into the same ceiling if adoption never changes gear.
- Power-law bands: this dashboard's floor, median and ceiling. Dashed after today.
Small charts
- FOMO compression: how far price ran above committed capital at each cycle peak and trough. Peaks have shrunk every cycle.
- Capital coverage: realized capital per dollar of power-law median value. Below 0.50, price cannot reach the median without new money.
- Realized capital growth: the pace of each past cycle next to the pace this scenario needs.
- Supply shock: how many coins buyers pull off exchanges for every coin the network mints, and what today's demand looks like when the April 2028 halving cuts minting in half.
- Adoption curves: six technologies on the same clock, years since each one's first commercial service, with Bitcoin's headcount and capital points on the same frame.
Keep in mind
These are scenario lines, not forecasts. Realized capital and exchange balances come from Coin Metrics community data, published daily; each panel names its source and data date. The ceiling cannot be read from price history, so it is your choice to make.